Oh how I wish I could use this opportunity to spin, but I’ve become so much more sober and pessimistic recently. I would love to say, “This election was a defeat for Big Government Conservatism.” Then, I would promote a return to basic conservative principles. I would shout that we already won, and our voters threw out a perversion of those principles. We’re poised for victory in ’08 with real conservatism, or we will fight for our candidates in ’08 against the evil big government wing of the party. Alas, if it were only so!

This election wasn’t a rejection or approval of any set of principles. This election was a rejection of incompetence. The people were angry at Bush. He had failed with Katrina and failed with Iraq. The Republican party was corrupt, as evidenced symbolically by the Foley scandal. It wasn’t a rejection of any of the principles of family values, etc — it was the corruption of the principles. The Big Government Conservatives didn’t lose. Some of them were pissed off at the party as we (Limited Government Conservatives) were. Or rather, the Dems gained a good amount of the evangelical vote who cited “corruption” as an issue they cared about. We didn’t vote Republican because of high spending. Moderates and us voted Democrat because of the screw-ups in Iraq. Moderates hated not the corruption of certain principles, but actual monetary corruption — a part of a general theme of incompetence. Democrats, well, they were probably going to vote Democrat anyway.

My point is that none of us changed our ideology even though we may have voted a different way. I don’t like saying that there are “real” reasons for things. This is not so in human minds (uh oh, this could open a whole nother can of worms, so I won’t elaborate), but especially not so in a collective body — each person votes for different reasons. Attempts to find a real ulterior motive will fail because we all voted for different reasons. Still, I think there can be big contributing factors, and we can all find reasons that aren’t justified. If you want to know why Republicans lost, look at Bush’s low approval ratings. Why are Bush’s approval ratings low? He’s incompetent.

So, what does all this mean in the battle of ideas? Not so much, I guess. This election was a peculiarity, as all elections are. Greater historical meaning will be assigned in retrospect.

There’s a huge difficulty in assigning reasons to this loss. People tend to think that most people agree with them. Thus, I’ll tend to say that my reasons for not voting Republican were the reasons everyone voted Republican.

The Republicans lost votes from their base and lost big among independents. Why? I don’t think it was ideology. I don’t know if they are against the War in Iraq, per se. Mostly, they’re angry at the incompetent way it’s been handled. (Or at least, I am, haha.) The Republicans have bungled their rule for whatever reasons. People will assign whatever reasons they think that the Republicans were incompetent, but those reasons will vary. The fact is that the Republicans were incompetent in their governance. It made them unpopular. That’s the basic reason for losing.

But why oh why were we incompetent?

I just don’t think there’s a simple answer. The election itself doesn’t prove things one way or another. Still, I think we can eventually isolate certain elements.

Lloyd replies:

You’re absolutely right… in national politics, the answers aren’t so simple. But in very general terms, I’d say “overconfidence leading to hubris” is a good wrap. Add that to the old saw about absolute power absolutely corrupting, and I think that pretty much covers the philosophical bases. I’m quite sure it’s hard to consider first principles when you’ve got absolute power in hand. It’s so easy to say … “so freaking what.”

While I’ve said that I’m wandering the political wilderness, I have not yet cut off all my ties. I still belong to the College Republicans at JHU, some of whom appreciated my Why I’m Voting Republican piece. Since I still have some connection to the Republican party, the elections weren’t all dandy for me. I’m still a partisan, I guess.

The closest analogy I can make is that the elections were like pouring alcohol on a wound. It hurt, but it was necessary. I can already begin to feel the relief since I learned of Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation. His resignation will also hopefully weaken Cheney’s influence.

What’s next? I’m not sure. I’d like to see bloody civil war between various factions of the Republican party. I’m guessing it’s going to be business as usual, instead of some serious soul-searching. I mean, all-out warfare between the factions is very, very, very unlikely. Meanwhile, the Democrats may stop being so idiotic, and then we’ll really have a long way to catch up if we don’t figure out that something is seriously flawed with Bushism.

If it comes to warring, then I’ll fight, and if my side loses, I’ll probably jump ship. But again, I don’t think it will come to that.

I still can’t shake this idea of a Realignment (yes, with a capital R). I just don’t feel like the current coalitions can hold. New issues will break us apart.

All in all, I feel as lost as I did before.

Dobson issues a statement worth quoting good amounts from:

Conservative Christian leader James Dobson accused the Republican Party of abandoning values voters in the midterm elections – and paying the price by losing control of Congress. “What did they do with their power?” Dobson said in a statement. “Very little that values voters care about.”

[…snip…]

“They consistently ignored the constituency that put them in power until it was late in the game, and then frantically tried to catch up at the last minute,” said Dobson, who argued that religious conservatives ensured GOP wins in 2004.

Dobson also criticized other conservatives, including former Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas – an architect of the 1994 GOP House takeover – for complaining recently that the religious right was “too involved” with the party.

“Without the support of that specific constituency, John Kerry would be president and the Republicans would have fallen into a black hole in ’04,” Dobson said. “In fact, that is where they are headed if they continue to abandon their pro-moral, pro-family and pro-life base. The big tent will turn into a three-ring circus.”

[…snip…]

“Sadly for conservatives, that in large measure explains what happened on Tuesday night,” he said. “Many of the values voters of ’04 simply stayed at home this year.”

[…snip…]

More than four in 10 evangelicals said corruption and scandals were extremely important, and those who felt that way were more likely to vote for Democratic candidates than other evangelicals. About a third who were most concerned about corruption cast their votes for Democrats, according to exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and the networks.

Hey Dobson, if it wasn’t for people like Dick Armey, there wouldn’t have been a Republican majority in the House to lose. (Contrary to Dobson, I believe the limited government base of the Republican party needs to assert its supremacy.)

Rove’s strategy of courting you is bunkum. The Christianist darling Santorum went down in flames. Meanwhile, Arnold Schwarzenegger managed to crush clearly liberal Phil Angelides in a clearly liberal state. Within a year, after special election defeats, he turned himself around from being finished to handily winning reelection. Yet, supposed genius Rove didn’t even get Bush the popular vote in 2000. Under Rove’s great guidance, Bush’s approval ratings are in the toilet.

So put those two paragraphs in your pipe and smoke it. And that’s just off the top of my head.

If you want to criticize Dick Armey, be my guest. This current big tent is dead. Let the finger-pointing begin. It’s time for bloody civil war.

(Of course, as time goes by, my position will become much more nuanced.)

Start quacking, Bush. You’re about to lose the Senate too.

(More brilliant analysis later today. I’m trying to figure out the best spin.)

EDIT: On second thought, I take that back. We might see a “comprehensive” immigration plan, yet. Rinse, repeat in 20 years. (We learned nothing from 1986.)

Goddamn. Yes, I know, I wanted to the Republicans to lose the House this time around. But Speaker Pelosi?? BAH! A pox on both parties!

My only hope is that the Democrats launch an investigation that disgraces Rumsfeld and forces him out.

EDIT: The day before elections, my guess was 50/50 Senate and +20 for Dems. The second prediction is way off. The first might be wrong too. Webb is ahead slightly in VA. It looks like Missouri or Montana may go to the Dems. The Republicans might lose the Senate too.

EDIT: Missouri is called for Dems. Webb extends his lead in Virginia, but we’ll probably have a recount, especially since it decides control of the Senate. Burns is catching up in Montana, but still behind by 4 points.

EDIT: Schwarzenegger wins big in CA. Hooray bipartisanship!

My latest piece for The Carrollton Record:

Why I’m Voting Republican This November

Do you really need a reason to vote Republican this November? Ever since the Democrats came to power (about) 6 years ago, taking control of the executive and legislative branches, we’ve had a mess. I’ve hardly enough space to adequately cover this travesty, but I figure quick hits on big issues will be enough.

Spending

Under the current administration, we have seen the largest increase of the welfare state since Mr. Great Society himself, Lyndon B. Johnson. These stats make me want to puke:

• Department of Education budget (since No Child Left Behind): up 51%
• Department of Agriculture subsidies: up 40%
• Medicare prescription drug benefit cost: $534 billion
• 2005 Transportation Act: $286 billion

The highway bill is a joke, laden with $24 billion of pork.₁ Unfortunately, the president has never heard of a veto, never seen a spending bill he didn’t like. A Republican president would’ve stopped the nonsense.

War

The current president is the (un)intellectual heir of Woodrow Wilson. We’ve seen the worst case of moralistic military adventurism in history with the unjust invasion of Iraq in the name of “democracy” and unfound WMDs. Principled conservatives rightly objected to the war all along. Stability comes before democracy. Conservatives know that it is impossible to throw away the traditions of a country and expect democracy to magically appear. That’s Edmund Burke 101. George W. Bush explained it well during one of the debates in 2000: “Somalia started off as a humanitarian mission then changed into a nation-building mission and that’s where the mission went wrong. The mission was changed. And as a result, our nation paid a price, and so I don’t think our troops ought to be used for what’s called nation building. I think our troops ought to be used to fight and win war. I think our troops ought to be used to help overthrow a dictator when it’s in our best interests. But in this case, it was a nation-building exercise.” Alas, if only George W. Bush had won in 2000!

Civil Liberties

It is the goal of the conservative to protect the traditions which are the rightful foundations of our liberty, like habeas corpus. The Military Commissions Act of 2006, recently passed by the Democratic Congress, gives undue power to the executive, allowing him to indefinitely detain legal aliens on US soil, without a writ of habeas corpus. Do you trust the president to do this? I wouldn’t even trust a Republican president with that kind of power.

Time and time again, the president has subverted the law. He unlawfully authorized wiretaps when he easily could have gone to Congress to amend FISA. He held detainees in Guantanamo Bay without trial. The rule of law is fundamental, yet this president doesn’t care.

Immediately after 9/11, he hammered through the Patriot Act. It is the conservative’s duty to shout “Halt!” when someone tries to enact sweeping reforms with little forethought. Consistently, the president and Congress throw caution to the wind with our civil liberties, all while pretending to make us safer.

Moral Values

This latest page scandal really shows the true colors of the Democrats. Their champion of protecting children, chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children, was caught sending explicit instant messages to underage teens. Talk about hypocrisy!

And still, the Speaker of the House refuses to step down. If this had happened to the Republicans, we wouldn’t point fingers and obfuscate. We would take responsibility. The Democrats continually show that they don’t care about principles; they only care about maintaining and aggrandizing their power.

Conclusion

The Democrats, whilst in control of Congress, have presided over obscene increases in spending and the size of government has ballooned. The president combines all the worst aspects of LBJ and Woodrow Wilson. Congress has done nothing but increase the power of this runaway executive, upsetting the checks and balances between the branches and running afoul of civil liberties. They throw away moral values, all concepts of tradition, and the rule of law in their pursuit of power.

It’s time for a change! Send a message to the president! Send a message to Congress! This November, we need to put the Republicans in charge… huh, what? What are you telling me? Wait a second, you mean, the Democrats haven’t been in power for the last six years?

Shit.

₁All of these statistics come from my Intro to American Politics book, American Government, which in turn took these stats from George F. Will in the Newsweek article, “The Last Word.” They’re also a year old, so I expect the estimates look worse today.

I just sat there. During the College Dems vs. College Republicans debate, I just sat there as my fellow Republican defended torture, saying it was okay to make terrorists feel a little uncomfortable. I had a chance. I had a chance to take the question instead of him. I had the chance to say, “I’m not only dismayed, but disgusted at President Bush and the Congressmen who voted for his bill. I’m ashamed of America for endorsing torture. It’s strange that a party could filibuster reasonable judicial nominees, but couldn’t muster up the force to save habeas corpus. But more so, I’m ashamed of the Republican party for its role in torture. This isn’t a partisan issue. Torture is unequivocably wrong.” Instead, I just sat there, staring at my pen, doing my best not to shout out. I just sat there.

Something has been bothering me for the past few days — something I couldn’t quite identify it. I don’t know if this is what it was, but at the very least, it’s really bothering me right now. I know the audience was small, but I’m ashamed at myself for sitting there and doing nothing.

And right now, instead of… of speaking out against this evil, I’m ruminating on race. Granted, race is an important topic and shouldn’t be ignored, but the very fabric of the Republic isn’t at risk of being torn asunder on account of race.

Andrew Sullivan made the most powerful image yet, regarding Iraq. Iraq is the foreign policy equivalent of Katrina. [Note to self: Put YouTube video in this entry.]

I can no longer sit quietly in my corner. I wrote my four-comic series, but why am I not pimping them at every opportunity! I am too quiet.

Thus, I will continue my ruminations on race, but not at the expense of averting my gaze from very important events in American history. I will begin composing my “Dialogues on Torture” and figure out how to start making that Ticking Time Bomb Gone Wrong movie. I will keep writing about politics up until, through, and after Election Day.

As I wander the political wilderness, I find that I am not alone.

That second link there expresses a lot of what I’m feeling.

I know I said I’d avoid politics this week, but I felt this important to note. I wonder how many more of us are out there.

Who’s that smart, astute reader whose e-mail Andrew Sullivan recently posted? You know, the one who wrote about Edmund Burke and balance?

Ah yes, that would be me.

As a principled conservative, I am abstaining from voting in this election.

If you want more details, check out my recent series of Chalkboard Manifesto comics.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4 will be up this Sunday.

You know what, I’ll be honest, I had no clue this was still going on: “The figures are stark. An average of 112 cars a day have been torched across France so far this year and there have been 15 attacks a day on police and emergency services. Nearly 3,000 police officers have been injured in clashes this year. Officers have been badly injured in four ambushes in the Paris outskirts since September. Some police talk of open war with youths who are bent on more than vandalism” (Why 112 cars are burning every day).

In thinking about the recent Military Commissions Act, I’ve been banging my head against the wall, trying to come up with a plan of action.

I considered protest, massive student protests, but they’re anathema to my character as a conservative and I wondered if they’d really have an effect. As I write more for Principles of Agitation, I realize that real, concrete actions have to be taken, and a light must be shone so people know that there are real problems.

Civil disobedience is out of the picture, however, unless you want to try to plot a terrorist attack and bring up a case before the Supreme Court. Alternatively, see how popular you are when you try to defend the rights of a terrorist.

No, I’ve finally realized a better plan. First, however, I must explain a hypothetical I like to call, “The Ticking Time Bomb Gone Wrong.”

In the Ticking Time Bomb Gone Wrong scenario, we open with the typical Ticking Time Bomb scenario. A bomb of some sort is about to go off somewhere. We have a someone we suspect has information about this bomb. The characters in the scenario decide to torture this person to get information. Whilst they go about the torture, the real culprit goes free, unnoticed, except by one plucky investigator. To make the scenario even better, make sure the tortured person is a horrible person, maybe even involved in the plot, but does not know where the bomb is located. The information they get from torture leads them to the wrong place, and/or the wrong person. Meanwhile, the plucky investigator is trying to get their attention about who the real person is, but they don’t listen because they think the information they got from torture is right. The bomb goes off, and there are massive casualties. The authorities have failed because they relied on torture.

If my scenario sounds highly improbable and kind of like a movie or TV plot, you’re exactly right. That’s the point.

My plan involves getting the media to buy into this story. To make this scenario the subject of a TV show. To get a movie to use this story. To convince people that torture doesn’t work.

Or maybe, with our savvy youth media skills, make this catch fire on YouTube or MySpace videos. To make this the subject of a rap song. Essays. Stories. Novels. Newspaper articles. Weblog entries. Anything and everything.

The power of the Ticking Time Bomb Gone Wrong scenario is that it goes one step further than saying torture is merely ineffective, it says that torture actually weakens our ability to fight terror. It does so in a simplistic fashion that most people can understand. I’m sure it has the emotional power to convince people. It is an effective counter to the torture-apologists’ propaganda, especially in its ability to reach the common person.

Will it motivate them to action? Maybe not. But this is but the first step, and I think an important one. Torture only has this strut to stand upon. If we take it away, support will wither, and we can mount an organized attack.

For now, I throw these thoughts out into the void, but I will expand the Ticking Time Bomb Gone Wrong plot, maybe even write up a script, or find someone to write a script. I will try to find my own crew to make a short film, or I will try to find connections to someone, anyone to do it. I will try to find a way to publicize this story.

Maybe I can hold a competition of some sort, with monetary compensation for the winner.

Are there any people out there willing to turn the Ticking Time Bomb Gone Wrong into a film (or other type of) reality?

Lloyd, surely you know some creative minds out there.

EDIT: An interesting plot twist could be to have the real perpetrators be Sunni and the tortured ones be Shiite, or vice versa. Of course, the torturers have no idea what the difference between the two groups are.

EDIT: As always, critiques of my plan are welcomed. However, if you’re here to criticize the Ticking Time Bomb Gone Wrong scenario, stop. It’s just as improbable as the Ticking Time Bomb scenario itself, but unfortunately, most people don’t realize that.

Touchy feely liberal Thomas Hobbes on torture:

“Also accusations upon torture are not to be reputed as testimonies. For torture is to be used but as a means of conjecture and light in the further examination and search of truth; and what is in that case confessed tendeth to the ease of him that is tortured, not to the informing of the torturers, and therefore ought not to have the credit of a sufficient testimony; for whether he deliver himself by true or false accusation, he does it by the right of preserving his own life.” — Leviathan [emphasis mine]

For those unfamiliar with Thomas Hobbes, he’s not a touchy-feely liberal. He’s a 17th century philosopher with a rather bleak view of human nature.

I thought the part I highlighted was interesting. Take it for what you will.