With Bush’s dismal approval ratings, it is extremely likely that the Democrats will take the Senate and/or the House. This statistic from the NY Times stopped me dead in my tracks: “The [negative] reaction [to the $100 gas rebate] comes as the rising price of gasoline has put the public in a volatile mood and as polls show that cynicism about Congress is at its highest level since 1994.” If you don’t know your recent history, 1994 is when the GOP gained majorities in Congress from the Dems. We could be seeing a stunning replay of history, only this time in reverse. The Republicans have coasted on the ineptness of the Democrats for a while, but where Cindy Sheehan (remember her?) and Katrina failed, the Dubai Ports Deal, high spending, and immigration have just destroyed the base’s trust in the party. It’s not enough to hope the Democrats will mess things up again. Indeed, some parts of the Democratic Party are figuring out how to get back on track. Nancy Pelosi, though, is excluded from this contingent. Maybe the Kos crowd wants to impeach Bush, but the nation doesn’t want another presidential witchhunt. Still, Karl Rove’s probable strategy of scaring the base into voting because of this is not going to be enough. They need the reassurance of specific conservative policies.

I do, however, have a sure-fire way to keep the GOP in the majority. It’s an easy plan. Immigration and ANWR. The Senate’s plan for amnesty is going to make the base, which is extremely riled up about this issue, sit home on election day and not vote. The GOP needs its base more than ever. Furthermore, tough immigration policy will grab swing voters and centrist Democrats. The second thing making Americans angry is high gas prices. The gas rebate was a stupid idea. If you want something that will grab people’s attention, say you’re going to drill ANWR. We all love the environment, but most Americans are willing to sacrifice a frozen wasteland in order to get some more oil. Call for alternative energy too, but drilling ANWR will draw a distinction between Republicans and Democrats that will play out in favor for the right.

I also have a plan for the Democrats: Don’t listen to Nancy Pelosi. Just don’t say anything stupid regarding national security because the Republicans aren’t likely to seriously push for those two issues I outlined earlier. Bush loves illegal immigrants and he is the party, so you probably don’t have to worry too much about that issue. Be warned: A mistake on national security will cost you the election just as it did in 2004. Instead, sit back and enjoy the show — namely, the coming implosion of the GOP.

[Note: This originally appeared on myspace.]